The treatment of uncertainty in long-term economic forecasting for an economy in transition. A methodological lesson from a country study for the Czech Republic

Forecasts of economic development are the basic building blocks in all models for calculating emissions levels. Some models use the economic development scenario directly as input data, while others use selected data that must be derived form such a scenario. All countries undergoing economic transition must inevitably face the enormous uncertainties in their economic future. Under these circumstances it is difficult for many countries of Central and Eastern Europe to join the common effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to submit the base forecasts of emissions trends in their countries. The current development of economies in transition is analyzed using the Czech Republic as an example, and primary differences between the behavior of these economies and stabilized market economies are shown. The options that make it possible to work on emissions projections and to seek measures for emissions reductions will be indicated. (EG)