Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland

Highlights: • Potential impacts of climate change on NOM were projected. • Results show future behaviours are similar to current conditions. • Projected increases are offset by parallel decreases in precipitation and flow. Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants.