Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Models and data for the repository system 2012. Parts 1 and 2

TURVA-2012 is Posiva Oy's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR 2012) and application for a construction licence for a KBS-3V spent nuclear fuel repository. The present report is a key element of the TURVA-2012 report portfolio and has the objective of documenting the models, data, assumptions and treatment of uncertainties in the context of the safety case. This report is the main link between the safety case and the engineered barrier design and their development as well as between the safety case and the Olkiluoto site investigations. This report focuses on the models and data used in Performance Assessment and in Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System, which are key reports of TURVA-2012. Models and data for the surface environment are discussed in dedicated biosphere modelling and data reports. This report describes the methodology for the identification of key models and data as well as the modelling chain with input and output data connections. Models and data are presented for all components of the repository system: spent nuclear fuel, canister, buffer, backfill, closure, underground openings and geosphere. The report is structured so that the modelling of external processes is discussed first, followed by the models and data used in the performance assessment to address the evolution of the repository system and finally the models and data used in the radionuclide release and transport assessment. Confidence in the models and data and the treatment of uncertainties are also discussed. The present report traces the path from data production to implementation in the modelling chain. During the compilation of the report, some discrepancies between the sources of data and data usage, as well as some inconsistencies in model assumptions, were identified. The consequences of the potentially most significant of these were checked through additional radionuclide release and transport calculations. These additional calculations show that none of these discrepancies and inconsistencies alter the main findings of the safety case. The report ends with a discussion of additional research and development activities that aim to enhance confidence in the model results in TURVA-2012 and reduce the remaining uncertainties in the models and data to be used in the updated safety case needed for the operational licence application (orig.)