A prototype system dynamic model of nuclear and radiological export controls in Central Asia and the Caucasus; enhancing the effectiveness of preventing illicit nuclear material trafficking

An urgent need calls out for improved border security and export control systems in the Central Asian and Caucasus regions to prevent illicit nuclear and radioactive materials trafficking. Effective nuclear and radiological exports controls are essential because these regions contain numerous nuclear facilities and radioactive materials as well as lie at the crossroads between seekers and suppliers of technologies that could be employed in nuclear and radiological weapons. Porous and unprotected borders compound these concerns. Moreover, the states within these regions are struggling with forming new regulations and laws, obtaining sufficient portal monitoring equipment, training customs and border security personnel, and coordinating these activities with neighboring states. Building this infrastructure all at once can severely task any government. Thus, unsurprisingly, most of these states have inadequate export control and border security systems. To enable each state in these regions determine how to better prevent illicit nuclear and radiological materials trafficking, the authors have developed a prototype system dynamics model focused on evaluating and improving of effectiveness of export controls. System dynamics modeling, a management tool that grew out of the field of system engineering and nonlinear dynamics, uses two structures: causal loop diagrams and stock and flow diagrams. The former shows how endogenous systematic factors interact with each other to produce feedback mechanisms that results in either balancing or reinforcing loops. A classic example is a arms race, modeled as a vicious cycle or reinforcing loop. In addition to interacting with each other, causal loops influence the flow of stock, which is material concern. In the export control system dynamics model, the stock represents nuclear and radioactive materials. System dynamics modelling is an iterative process that is continually modified by user input. Therefore, export control officials in each state are invited to contribute to the model's development