An economical evaluations of the Sizewell decision

This article examines the overall economics of the Sizewell B project using methods of probabilistic decision analysis. Under an illustrative choice of input probability distributions used to represent uncertain variables, it is shown that there is a 60% chance that Sizewell B will prove to be justified on economic grounds. More importantly, however, the expected value of the project turns out to be large and positive. The methodology may be used to examine the effect of using different subjective probability distributions, and so serves as a useful tool for the decision maker faced with conflicting views of an uncertain future. (author)