Optimal synthesis of multi-product energy systems under neutrosophic environment

Highlights: • A neutrosophic linear program was developed for integrated energy system. • Uncertainties in planning integrated energy systems are addressed by the model. • The model allows adjusting to different risk perception to design robust systems. • The model balances economic benefits and environmental impacts in energy systems. Integration of multiple production technologies to produce energy in various vectors develops more efficient and sustainable multi-product energy systems—this integration results in reduced waste generation, increased efficiency, and higher economic benefits. Synthesis of energy systems requires planning under uncertainties that can result in risky technological investments. Management of these risks can result to a robust and flexible energy system. This study develops a novel neutrosophic optimization model to address these uncertainties. It involves treating product demands, waste targets, and economic benefits as interval-valued neutrosophic numbers. Three characteristic functions under the neutrosophic environment are considered: membership, non-membership, and indeterminacy. Two case studies are used to illustrate the model: one involves a polygeneration plant, and another involves an integrated biorefinery. Sensitivity analyses were performed for each case, adjusting the levels of risk tolerance in the neutrosophic environment. The model generates relevant process design insights such as technology selection and optimal output levels. A design that balances environmental impacts and economic benefits is also generated. The insights that can be generated by the model allows policymakers and plant developers to manage risks with multi-product energy systems.