Seismic reliability of nuclear power plants

Analysis of nuclear power plant safety with respect to severe seismic initiating events is receiving much current attention. The role of the structural and mechanical engineer becomes very strong in such a study relative to his role in operational accident analyses. This paper summarizes the spectrum of approaches that have been used to date. It concludes with a brief presentation of a methodology which lies at an intermediate level in that spectrum and which use concepts from the probability theory of both events and random variables. We stress the importance of learning how best to construct such coarser (but more transparent) models from the experience obtained from the more detailed, involved studies