North America markets for alcohol and alcohol-derived motor fuels and need for tax incentives

The U.S. fuel alcohol and ether industry has grown from its infancy in 1979 to approximately 2.9 billion gallons of production capacity in 1991. With the emphasis on clean air, the uncertainties in the Middle East, and fluctuating oil prices, IRI believes the demand for alcohol-derived motor fuels is poised to begin a second phase of expansion. Historically, the two primary alcohol-derived motor fuels sold in the U.S. have been methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethanol. There is also a limited but growing use of methanol as 85% blendstock for gasoline. Since 1978, fuel ethanol has provided the U.S. petroleum industry with an additional source of supply, octane, and profit. Its price was based on the price of wholesale gasoline plus available federal and state tax incentives. These incentives allowed ethanol, with production costs of $1.00 to $1.25 per gallon, to compete with gasoline at prices of 40 to 65 per gallon. Without the federal and state tax incentives, it would not be economically feasible to sell or manufacture fuel ethanol. On the other hand, the largest consumption of methanol has been as a feedstock for the production of MTBE, the world's fastest growing chemical over the past seven years. MTBE prices are based on the cost of raising the octane level of gasoline, and this commodity does not receive subsidies. Beginning in 1992, IRI predicts the price relationship between ethanol, MTBE, and gasoline will change as U.S. refiners and marketers are required to include oxygenated fuels (alcohol-derived) in their gasoline. In total, over 60 billion gallons of gasoline will need to be reformulated by the year 2000. The increased demand for oxygen will result in a 2.5-billion gallon deficit of MTBE and 1.2-billion gallon deficit of ethanol by the year 2000. 2 tabs