Technical-economic analysis of different scenarios for the electrification of space heating in the residential sector by 2030/Technical-economic comparison of different scenarios for the electrification of space heating in the residential sector by 2030 - Summary of the study

In cooperation with Artelys, Coenove has carried out a study for the 2030 timeframe, which shows that a balanced scenario in terms of energy complementarity for decarbonizing buildings is more advantageous for the community than a massive electrification of energy uses. This study compares, at full cost and all other things being equal (number of dwellings, rate of renovation, assumptions on the evolution of other heating modes, forecasts for sectors other than the building sector, etc.), two scenarios for the evolution of the share of electric and gas heating in dwellings in 2030: one, 'S2 electrified', corresponding to an accelerated electrification of heating, typically through measures to ban or 'massively disincentivize' gas-fired boilers, and the other, 'S1 balanced', corresponding to a continuation of the downward trend in gas consumption (through 'natural' losses of gas customers and improved boiler performance) coupled with significant development of hybrid heat pumps. This study shows that the 'S1 balanced' scenario, which promotes the widespread use of very high energy efficiency boilers, the greening of gas and the hybridization of equipment, makes it possible: not only it achieves the ambitions defined by the General Secretariat for Ecological Planning (SGPE) in terms of lowering CO₂ emissions for the building sector, but it also combines lower overall cost, greater robustness to the contingencies considered (lower nuclear availability, less renovation, cold wave), and greenhouse gas emissions on a European scale equivalent to 'S2 electrified' without banning gas boilers. It also preserves French purchasing power, the choice of solutions for households and public finances