Long-term calculation of radionuclides concentration in the ocean by OGCM

The ocean transports of radioactive materials have been carried out from Europe to Japan through the several routes on the world ocean. To sustain the safety of the transport of radioactive materials and to gain the public acceptance, it is necessary evaluate the radionuclide concentration in the ocean at the hypothetical submergence of radioactive materials into the world ocean. The purpose of this study is to develop a new method to evaluate the radionuclides concentration in the world ocean. A method to calculate the concentration of radionuclides in the ocean was developed using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). The concentration of radionuclides (137Cs, 90Sr and 239+240Pu) in the ocean was calculated from 1957 to 1994, on the assumption that these radionuclides were injected into the ocean only as the fallout from the atmospheric weapons tests. The calculated concentrations gave a good agreement with the observed data. The concentration of radionuclides in the ocean was estimated by this method in case of the hypothetical submergence of a package of fresh MOX fuel into the ocean on the routes of ocean transport from Europe to Japan. We calculated the concentration of 6 radionuclides (238Pu, 239Pu, 240Pu, 241Pu, 242Pu and 241Am) over 1000 years. It takes 3.5 CPU hours for 1000-year calculation by the supercomputer HITACHI S3800. The concentration in the ocean due to the hypothetical submergence of a package of fresh MOX fuel is estimated to be much smaller than the present background concentration of fallout. (author)