Visions on energy production technologies for Finland up to 2030

The energy sector will face major challenges in the coming decades. Global demand for primary energy is continuously increasing, as are its related environmental effects. On the other hand, the limited resources of especially oil and gas will lead to increasing price instability. Deregulation of energy markets is a challenge for the infrastructure. This deregulation is leading to restructuring of the energy market. States and owners of energy companies and energy policy decision-makers will find it difficult to play this double role. At European level and in Finland the biggest challenge is the attainment of the Kyoto target and then further reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Renewables, nuclear power and growing imports of natural gas from Russia will play a crucial role in Finland. This presentation focuses on the development of the energy production technologies that are most important for Finland's energy supply and energy technology exports. In order to analyse the possible role of various emerging and evolving technologies in the future energy system of Finland, three scenarios has been created for a comprehensive energy system model. The model is based on a bottom-up, technology oriented representation of the energy system, including both the supply and end-use sector. Mathematically, the model is a quasi-dynamic linear optimisation model that stimulates the behaviour of energy-economic decision-making by minimising the total present value of all costs and other expenditures in the energy system during the entire time horizon under consideration. (BA)