Atoms for peace, atoms for war, atoms for profit

Nuclear power experience so far has been disappointing. While apparent successes or failures are subject to qualifications and uncertainties, the author tends to take the view that nuclear power has been an especially risky gamble and remains so in the current conditions. The current troubles of the global nuclear industries will persist until at least the early 1990s, by when nuclear power growth would have slowed down to a trickle. This should provide a pause for rethinking nuclear power strategies. Following a period of retrenchment and consolidation in the supply industries, there is potential for further expansion at a slow pace beyond the 1990s, provided the following conditions are met: operating performance of the nuclear power plants (NPPs) is significantly improved; technological innovations and improved managerial practices result in arresting and reversing the increase in nuclear capital costs; nonnuclear fuel costs show a steady long-term real growth; and safe, economical and politically workable solutions for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste have been developed and implemented. (author). 22 refs., 10 tabs