Roadmap towards clean heating in 2035: Case study of inner Mongolia, China

Highlights: • Clean heating resources in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region are investigated and mapped in details. • 4 district heating pathways combining renovations in heating sources and buildings are proposed. • Heat demand for years 2025 and 2035 are forecasted. • Replacing coal boilers with clean heating resources can reducing both energy consumption and annual cost. • The economically optimal building renovation plan lie between the proposed pathways. -- Abstract: District heating (DH) is rapidly expanding in China, which consumes a significant share of the national energy and aggravates pollution problems. Among the Northern provinces, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) has a large area of district heating which relies heavily on coal boilers. In order to achieve the clean heating development goal, this paper first presents a detailed investigation and mapping of the clean heating resources at county levels in the IMAR. Combined with the different energy-saving strategies, four pathways for future DH were proposed. Considering the forecasted scenarios of DH for years 2025 and 2035, this study compares the proposed pathways in terms of primary energy consumption and economic benefits. It was observed that by replacing coal boilers with clean heating resources, the clean heating sources pathway could reduce coal consumption by about 41%, with 33% annual cost savings in 2018 compared with the reference pathway. However, when taking building renovation into account, the economically optimal renovation plan lies between the proposed SHRP and FHRP. The conclusions from this study provide valuable suggestions for clean heating developments in the IMAR and other parts of Northern China.