Fire danger index efficiency as a function of fuel moisture and fire behavior

Highlights: • Fire danger index performance was evaluated based on fuel moisture and fire behavior. • Controlled burns of four plots per day were performed over 80 days. • The Telicyn and Nesterov index presented lower correlation with the variables. • The EVAP/P index had an influence on the largest number of fuel variables and fire behavior. • This method can be applied even in areas without records or with only unreliable forest fire data. Assessment of the performance of forest fire hazard indices is important for prevention and management strategies, such as planning prescribed burnings, public notifications and firefighting resource allocation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of fire hazard indices considering fire behavior variables and susceptibility expressed by the moisture of combustible material. Controlled burns were carried out at different times and information related to meteorological conditions, characteristics of combustible material and fire behavior variables were recorded. All variables analyzed (fire behavior and fuel moisture content) can be explained by the prediction indices. The Brazilian EVAP/P showed the best performance, both at predicting moisture content of the fuel material and fire behavior variables, and the Canadian system showed the best performance to predicting the rate of spread. The coherence of the correlations between the indices and the variables analyzed makes the methodology, which can be applied anywhere, important for decision-making in regions with no records or with only unreliable forest fire data.