Medical problems of survivors of nuclear war: Infection and the spread of communicable disease

The nature of the medical problems produced by the aftermath of nuclear war is discussed. The survivors of nuclear war will live without the social structure needed to assure food, water, and shelter. They will experience malnutrition, exposure, and fatigue, which are all favorable to infection and the epidemic spread of communicable disease. The authors analyze the problem of infectious illness in the postattack period, assuming the 6,559 megaton attack scenario used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. A particular contribution of this analysis is that it is based on government technical reports that describe the available computer modeling of postattack conditions. Such simulations allow a semiquantitative estimate of deaths due to infection. They estimate that postattack infectious disease mortality will be 25%. These studies are not accessible to the general reader and are difficult for health professionals to interpret