Comparison of ASSESS neutralization module results with actual small force engagement outcomes

The ASSESS Neutralization module (Neutralization) is part of the Analytic System and Software for Evaluation of Safeguards and Security (ASSESS), a vulnerability assessment tool. Neutralization models a fire fight between security inspectors (SIs) and adversaries. This paper reports that a comparison has been made between actual outcomes of police and small military engagements and the results predicted by the Neutralization module for similar scenarios. The results of this comparison show a surprising correlation between predicted outcomes (based on numbers of combatants, weapon types, and exposures, etc.) and the actual outcomes of the engagements analyzed. The importance of this analysis is that given the defenders have intelligence on actual adversary characteristics or are protecting against a design basis threat, defense capabilities can be evaluated before an engagement. Results could then be used to develop a favorable probability of a desired outcome. For example, law enforcement agencies are frequently able to compile the number of criminals, types of weaponry, willingness to use force, etc., from analysis of crime scenes