Uncertainty in forecasting breakthrough of fluid transported through fractures

Tracer experiments in geothermal reservoirs emphasize the very great variability in rates of fluid movement through fractured rocks. This variability extends from the 10-meter to the kilometer-length scale. Thus tracer returns have been observed at some locations within hours at distances of up to 1 kilometer from the injection point, while other much nearer locations in the same formation do not observe the tracer until much later. In addition, transport rates have sometimes been extremely fast (up to 100 m/hr) even over such distances. This paper discusses the conclusions reached after compiling the results of a large number of tracer tests in several different fractured reservoirs. It is evident in some cases that large-scale geological features, such as faults, are responsible for the variations in tracer return time. In other cases, there is no clear physical description that explains the differences. These results suggest that there will be no a priori way of forecasting transport rates in fractured systems without performing a tracer test