Dam failures: insights to nuclear power risks

Dam failures with loss of human life in the U.S. since 1870 are identified. Also presented are the cumulative number of failures as a function of cumulative dam-years experience for both large dams (height greater than 45 feet) and for all dams that pose a threat to downstream population. The cumulative history of serious large-dam failures without human fatalities is similarly shown. The discussion of the analysis focuses on the fact that actuarial knowledge of the fatality risks of dams does not readily clarify decisions concerning dam safety. This raises some questions as to the utility (or futility) of expending resources on calculating nuclear power plant accident-caused fatalities. If the aim of such calculations is only to prove the acceptability of nuclear power, the resources expended are probably being wasted. And, as aids for safety decisions, fatality numbers are too uncertain and too narrowly focused to be very useful