Energy modeling: nuclear energy as China's main energy after 2040

According to the energy modeling and the strategic forecast of China's economic development and population, the energy demand in China in the coming century has been calculated yearly by computer simulation. It is shown by the calculation results that the primary energy consumption in 2050 will be 3.37-4.25 times as that of 2000. The fossil energy will still be the main energy during the early stage of 21st century, but it will be cut down rapidly since 2020s as its annual consumption is increased to 1.656-2.044 x 109 tce/a. Because the fossil fuel ressources in China are limited, more and more fossil fuel will be mainly turned to chemical products, and the environmental pollution will be serious if we still use the fossil as a main fuel widely. The amount of renewable energy will be increasing, but its share in the primary energy consumption will be cut down from 36% to about 20% during the first half of next century and then will maintain this portion. In this case, the nuclear energy will be developed rapidly during the early stage of next century and will become the main energy since 2040. The methodology of energy forecast has also been reviewed