The impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China in the past half-century

The relationship between the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated by using the observed dust storm frequency (DSF) and the 10 m wind velocity at 36 stations in Tarim Basin and the National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for the period 1961–2007. The spring DSF (winter NAO) index shows a clear decreasing (increasing) linear trend over 1961–2007. The winter NAO correlates well with the subsequent spring DSF over Tarim Basin on both interannual and interdecadal time scales and its interannual to interdecadal variation plays an important role in the spring DSF. Two possible physical mechanisms are identified. One is related to the large scale anomalous circulations in spring in the middle to high troposphere modulated by the winter NAO, providing the background of dynamical conditions for the dust storm occurrences. The other is related to the shifts in the local horizontal sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and 10 m wind speed, corresponding to changes in the large scale circulations in spring. The decrease in the local 10 m wind speed due to the reduced horizontal SLP gradients over Tarim Basin during the strong winter NAO years contributes to the decline of the DSF in the subsequent spring. (letter)