The development of detailed climatic scenarios for the Central Asia Region

Full text: In Tajikistan Republic over 10% of the territory is the zone of everlasting snow and glaciers. This territory requires strategic defence, as global anthropogenic increasing of temperature more perceptibly tells upon the regime of forming the river flow and activation of ice disintegration. Intense glaciers melting causes not only decreasing of the fresh water supply for Central Asia but also the formation of glacial lakes. Therefore there appears the danger of destructive mountain flows, which caused the human victims and land degradation not once. Under modern climatic conditions the area of the Pamirs and Alai's glaciers is decreasing annually by 1.2 sq. km. As a whole on region the tendency of decrease of emission of polluting substances from stationary sources in air pool is observed. If in 1990 the quantity of emission has made of 6793 thousand tons, by 1995 this size has decreased on 2084 thousand tons. The maximal contribution to total amount of emissions of polluting substances in an atmosphere has of Kazakhstan - 68%. The share of other countries of Central Asia is distributed as follows: Uzbekistan - 18%, Turkmenistan - 10%, Kyrgyzstan - 2% Tajikistan - 2%. In structure of manufacture of the electric power by Kazakhstan on a share of hydroelectric power station is 6-7%, dusty and coil - 79%, gas and fuel - oil - 12-13%. In structure of generating capacities of power stations of Uzbekistan the densities of thermal power stations makes 87.4%, hydroelectric power stations - 12.6%. As power resources for manufacture of energy the share of gas makes 82.6%, black oil - 13%, coil - 4.4%. The constant escalating of thermal capacities results in an aggravation of an ecological problem of region. Emissions of harmful substances by boiler of thermal power stations at development 1.0 GWt.h. is: Flying ashes and not burned down fuel - 4.6 thousand tons, oxides of sulfur - 4.4. thousand tons, oxides of nitrogen - 1.0 thousand t., thus are used about 850 thousand tons of atmospheric oxygen. It is necessary to note, that 1.0 tons oxide of nitrogen 1.0 thousand tons of a nitric layer, that results in decrease of absorbability of rigid ultra-violet space radiations. The decrease of absorption results in increase of intensity of rigid ultra-violet radiation in areas UV-AND (400-315 nm) and UV-IN (315-280 nm). The radiation has erythem, carcinogenic, antimythotic (lethal for a crate), mythogenic and other properties. Recently published report on change of climate prepared within the framework of the convention UNO concerning change of climate, hydrometeoretical by a service of Uzbekistan, predicts negative consequences of influence of climate change on water resources. According to the given report for the period from 1957 for 1980, the glaciers in Central Asia have decreased by 19% in size. The Aral crisis is most vivid example of an ecological problem with serious socio-economic consequences, to which directly or all states of Central Asia are indirectly connected. The crisis situation caused by drying of the Aral Sea, has developed as a result of an agrarian orientation of economy on the basis of development of irrigation agriculture and growth irrevocable use of water on irrigation. The essential river drain in deltas of Amu Darya and Syrdarya is insufficient for preservation ecological system. Since 1961 the sea level was constantly lowered with growing speed from 20 up to 90 sm. per one year. There is an intensive drainage and salting of grounds in deltas of these rivers, deep degradation of hydromorph ecological system. Former bottom of the sea became a source dusty and salty of carries on change of a temperature is observed. Moreover annually from dried up parts of bottom of the sea by a wind rises in air about 75 million tons of salt and sand, which are already found out at top of Pamir glaciers. The observing network in Tajikistan Republic has a unique peculiarity, which differs it from similar networks in other countries. It is situated at the altitudes of 300 to 4,169 m, i.e. in the troposphere. All tho se stations were included into the world observing network. In Tajikistan numerous scientific works require proper processing. Today it is necessary to make systematization and scientific analysis of hydrometeological data, accumulated for the last hundred years. The foundation of the stations of the local and global monitoring of the greenhouse gases opens the wide perspective to establish the changing dynamics of green concentration according to the altitudes. It establishes the dependence of the snow and glaciers melting process and the formation of the river flows on the greenhouse gases concentration at the different heights, as well as the influence of the greenhouse gases on the flora and fauna. The results of conducted measurements, observations of the greenhouse gases influencing the environment will generate the research and practical works in developing modern technologies, which provide the essential decrease in the greenhouse gases emission and the wide use of untraditional energy carriers instead of organic fuels. (author)