How well has economic strategy changed CO2 emissions? Evidence from China's largest emission province

Highlights: • Analyzed city level CO₂ emissions across 16 cities in Shandong Province • Energy intensity is the main driving force behind CO₂ emission growth. • Industrial structure lowers CO₂; however, its effect is not stable across all cities and their sectors. In recent years, Shandong Province became one of China's largest carbon emitters; however, existing studies failed to capture the recent trends and the key driving factors behind it at the city level. In this study, we computed the city-level CO₂ emission by employing accounting methods and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to provide a holistic picture and measure the contributing factors CO₂ emissions across 16 cities in Shandong Province during 2010–2018. Research outcomes indicate that Shandong's CO₂ emissions showed an increasing trend during 2010–2018, except in 2013. Shandong Province's GDP per capita and population size promote energy-related CO₂ emissions from 2010 to 2018. Energy intensity is the main driving force behind Shandong's significant CO₂ emission growth, followed by the energy consumption structure. Emission intensity and regional structure partly offset the CO₂ emission increase. Industrial structure is the most important driving factor in reducing emissions; however, its emission reduction effect is not stable in some cities and sectors, especially for the nonmetal and metal industry, petroleum and chemical industry, and energy sector. Dongying is the top emitter across Shandong from 2010 to 2018. Its emissions mainly come from the petroleum and chemical industry. The largest driving factors are the energy intensity and industrial structure. Investigating CO₂ emissions at the city level yields a strong recommendation that Shandong Province's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.