Large Reactors Poised to Lead the Nuclear Power Expansion as Small Modular Reactors Advance [eng., ar., zh., fr., ru., es.]

Scaling up nuclear power to the level needed to achieve net zero is a significant and multifaceted undertaking, and while many reactor types may play a role, large reactors are set to lead the way. Large water cooled reactors were central to the rise of the nuclear industry in the 20th century, and the advanced reactors planned or under construction today, many of which are in the 1–1.7 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) range, are poised to provide the bulk of new nuclear capacity. "For countries already operating nuclear power plants, large light water reactors, rather than small modular reactors (SMRs), will drive the increase in nuclear capacity," says Aline des Cloizeaux, Director of the IAEA's Division of Nuclear Power. "Large reactors are a proven technology that can economically provide a large and reliable baseload of energy. But we do expect countries and industries to tap into the potential of SMRs as well." Nuclear power must be expanded to meet the world's net zero goals — that was the clarion call issued by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi last December at the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), in a statement supported by dozens of countries. This position was affirmed by the inclusion of nuclear power in the Global Stocktake for the first time in the Conference's almost 30-year history. In a high case scenario, the IAEA's projection is that nuclear energy capacity will more than double by 2050, from 371 GW(e) in 2022 to 890 GW(e) by 2050, with only around 10% of this increase expected to come from SMR deployments. Hitting this mark means adding at least 20 GW(e) per year. "The high case projection is ambitious but technically feasible," says Henri Paillere, Head of the IAEA's Planning and Economic Studies Section.