The Commercial Future of Nuclear Power

The use of electric power in the world is increasing rapidly and this growth may be expected to continue for decades. As a result, a six- or eight-fold increase in generating capability must be provided for before the year 2000. It is anticipated that the bulk of future power supply will be based on nuclear and pumped-storage hydro stations. Nuclear power costs for large plants are now competitive in most areas of the world, and reactors are proving reliable and dependable. The flood of orders for major plants in the past year assures the pace of the programme and will minimize the effects of a short-range setback if some plants now building should be delayed or prove temporarily disappointing. There is no unanimity as to the best type of thermal reactor. It is anticipated that both water reactors and gas-cooled reactors will continue to be major factors and that other types will be worked on. All of these will become more economical and efficient, and appear in larger sizes, but type selection will continue to be influenced by matters other than relative efficiency and economy. The fast breeder reactor will probably break through to technical and economic feasibility around 1980 and then outrun the thermal reactor in rate of installed capacity. The exact pace of this programme is less certain than the final picture. Probably by 1980 over half of the new capacity being built will be nuclear. It will be the main reliance for new central station plants after that. One may anticipate 200 000 to 250 000 megawatts of nuclear power by 1980 and 3- to 4-million megawatts before the year 2000. Towards the end of the century, one should anticipate an equilibrium situation which will be reached first in the more highly industrialized countries. Breeder reactors will be the backbone of the power supply, which will include thermal reactors with plutonium playing an important role as a balancing factor. These will be complemented by pumped-storage hydro plants. There will be a continuing use of fossil fuel plants and conventional hydro. The attainment of this situation will require a tremendous expansion of manufacturing capacity for providing plants and fuel, and separation facilities and other lines. It will call for major adjustments of many sorts, including the adoption of a full system of inspection and licensing; and for its fullest development, it may require financial and trade rearrangements. The author foresees it as leading to a great increase in joint efforts and cooperation and reciprocity between nations and believes this may be a major force for world integration and understanding. (author)