Numerical study of error propagation in Monte Carlo depletion simulations

Improving computer technology and the desire to more accurately model the heterogeneity of the nuclear reactor environment have made the use of Monte Carlo depletion codes more attractive in recent years, and feasible (if not practical) even for 3-D depletion simulation. However, in this case statistical uncertainty is combined with error propagating through the calculation from previous steps. In an effort to understand this error propagation, a numerical study was undertaken to model and track individual fuel pins in four 17 x 17 PWR fuel assemblies. By changing the code's initial random number seed, the data produced by a series of 19 replica runs was used to investigate the true and apparent variance in keff, pin powers, and number densities of several isotopes. While this study does not intend to develop a predictive model for error propagation, it is hoped that its results can help to identify some common regularities in the behavior of uncertainty in several key parameters. (authors)