Predicting the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles using multiday GPS data

GPS data for a year's worth of travel by 255 Seattle households illuminate how plug-in electric vehicles can match household needs. The results suggest that a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) with 100 mi of range should meet the needs of 50% of one-vehicle households and 80% of multiple-vehicle households, when charging once a day and relying on another vehicle or mode just 4 days a year. Moreover, the average one-vehicle Seattle household uses each vehicle 23 mi per day and should be able to electrify close to 80% of its miles, while meeting all its travel needs, using a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with 40-mile all-electric range. Households owning two or more vehicles can electrify 50 to 70% of their total household miles using a PHEV40, depending on how they assign the vehicle across drivers each day. Cost comparisons between the average single-vehicle household owning a Chevrolet Cruze versus a Volt PHEV suggest that, when gas prices are $3.50 per gallon and electricity rates are at 11.2 ct/kWh, the Volt will save the household $535 per year in operating costs. Similarly, the Toyota Prius PHEV will provide an annual savings of $538 per year over the Corolla. - Highlights: ► Daily travel distances over a year were obtained for 255 Seattle households. ► 100-mi-range BEVs can meet 99% of daily needs for 50% of one-vehicle households. ► 100-mi-range BEVs can meet 99% of needs for 80% of multi-vehicle households. ► One-vehicle households will electrify close to 80% of their miles using a PHEV40 while meeting all trip-distance needs. ► Two-vehicle households can electrify 50 to 70% of household miles using a PHEV40 while meeting all trip-distance needs.