Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Coupled VERA-CS and FRAPCON

The current nuclear power plant fleet in the U.S. is facing numerous challenges economically ranging from low natural gas price to the rapidly growing renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. In order for the nuclear industry to keep the viability of its operating fleet, new innovations have to be introduced to lower the costs to operate the fleet. One area that could contribute to the cost reduction is to lower the fuel cycle cost and improve the plant safety through initiatives such as higher burnup fuel and accident tolerant fuel. At the same time, the nuclear industry has to address future challenges on the horizon such as load following and other flexible operating strategies as well as those associated with new regulations such as 10 CFR 50.69 and 10 CFR50.46c etc. All these require coupled analysis of core neutronics, thermal hydraulics and fuel performance, which necessitates the development of a multi-physics toolkit. Since different models, assumptions, and fidelities have gone into various computer codes, how to consistently propagate uncertainties in a multi-physics environment warrants careful evaluation. The U.S. DOE's Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program initiated a project to develop analytical capabilities to support the industry to address these challenges. The general idea behind the initiative was the development of an integrated multiphysics evaluation model. This integrated evaluation model is called LOTUS which stands for LOCA Toolkit for the U.S. Light Water Reactors. The focus of LOTUS is to establish the automation of the interface between the five disciplines. LOTUS framework ensures that uncertainties can be easily propagated to solve the problems forward and backward (inverse) with large numbers of simulations. The objective of this work is to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) on a coupling of CASL's Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications-Core Simulator (VERA-CS) and NRC's fuel performance code FRAPCON. The work presented herein is a subset of the overall LOTUS framework. The figures of merit (FOM) selected for analysis are minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel centerline temperature (MFCT), and the gap conductance at peak power (GCPP). All FOM are obtained at the end of the of a depletion case for a half cycle lasting 263 days. The minimum is taken over all spatial location for each pin at the end of the half cycle. This value is calculated in VERACS alone and has been analyzed in previous work by Brown and Zhang. The MFCT is available in both VERA-CS and FRAPCON, but is calculated via different methods (see Model Inconsistencies section for more details). For this work, only the FRAPCON values are reported due to the code's maturity from extensive validation in fuel performance. Previous work includes SA on a standalone nuclear fuel performance code VTT-modified FRAPCON- 3.4 by Ikonen. The GCPP is the gap conductance at the location corresponding to maximum power in the fuel rod. This value is available in FRAPCON alone and highlights the capability of LOTUS to obtain unique fuel performance metrics for each pin in a core simulation