Prioritization of strategic measures for strengthening the security of supply of the Serbian natural gas sector

Highlights: • Experts evaluated identified threats on security of natural gas supply in Serbia. • The most effective strategic measures for diminishing threats were prioritized. • Fuzzy AHP was applied for the analysis of the experts' judgments. • The priorities are establishing new import sources, routes, and interconnections. • The results are verified with the N-1 indicator and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. To strengthen the security of supply of the Serbian gas sector, it is necessary to analyze the impact of planned strategic measures. The analysis involves the identification of the most influential threats to the security of natural gas supply and prioritization of the strategic measures for overcoming the consequences of threats. The proposed methodology is based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. The obtained weights for the identified threats and strategic measures are formed according to experts' judgments. The results of the experts' judgments indicate that the most influential threats are termination of supply at the border with Hungary, termination of supply from Russia, and termination of supply from gas storage. The strategic measure with the highest priority is the so-called "Turkish Stream" project. Two additional strategic measures (gas interconnection Serbia – Bulgaria and the project of expanding the capacities of underground gas storage) could also be beneficial. The final results are validated by two security of supply indicators - Infrastructural Supply Standard (N-1) and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The N-1 is implemented to examine the preparedness of the gas system for disruption of the largest source in the network, while the HHI is implemented to examine the diversification of the imports.