Global land use patterns and the production of bioenergy to 2050

The results of a bottom-up analysis of the theoretical global bioenergy production potential are presented and discussed, with specific attention for the impact of underlying factors, existing studies on agriculture and forestry and gaps in the knowledge base that explain ranges in estimates. The impact of various factors is analysed by means of scenario analysis. Results indicate that the key factor for bioenergy production on surplus agricultural land is the type of agricultural management system. Theoretically, 70% of the present agricultural land use can be made available for bioenergy production, without further deforestation or endangering the future supply of food. The bioenergy potential from surplus agricultural land is estimated at 215 EJy-1 to 1471 EJy-1 in 2050. The bulk of this potential comes from the developing regions South America and the Carribean (47-221 EJy-1) and sub-Saharan Africa (31-317 EJy-1) and the transition economies of the CIS and Baltic States (45-199 EJy-1).