Slackwater sediment in a gully network records the increase in maximum probable precipitation due to climate change (Jaén, Spain)

The number and magnitude of flash floods in southern regions of Spain affected by the Mediterranean climate have increased, becoming a problem of great social interest due to the damages and derived economic losses (European Environment Agency 2017). Critical elements at risk may include water channel, sewerage, levee and transport infrastructure that affect the normal functioning of society. The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a key input parameter regarding the civil engineering calculations of such systems which involve the modelling of the rainfall-runoff process, flow routing and generation of flooding maps (Sánchez and Lastra 2011). The observed increase in PMP also implies a higher probable maximum flood (PMF), flow velocity and stage, which rise the erosive potential of the flow and sediment transport. Here, we propose a simple method to calculate the PMF and PMP associated to extreme hydrological events using remotely sensed slackwater sediments as key input data (Bohorquez 2016).