Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of TREAT Transient Test no. 15

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing for the resumption of transient testing using the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In order to support the analysis of TREAT operation and experiment planning, the MAMMOTH reactor physics team has recently begun development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the TREAT core simulated via MAMMOTH. MAMMOTH is a high-fidelity three-dimensional transient multi-physics code developed at INL under the DOE-NE Advanced Modeling and Simulation program (NEAMS). This research is part of the development presenting some initial uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of TREAT Transient Test no. 15. In this summary, we employ the Sobol sampling strategy implemented in RAVEN to efficiently perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The idea is using Sobol functional decomposition with generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions to estimate the responses of interest. The gPC coefficients are then computed via the sparse grid spectral projection method. In addition, this strategy includes evaluation of the second or higher order sensitivity indices, allowing the study of interactions between several input variables. The principal focus of this analysis is to quantify the uncertainties in the total power and maximum fuel temperatures with respect to uncertainties in the initial transient conditions, such as rated power, fuel temperature, graphite fuel density and control rod boron concentration. In addition, both the first order and second order time-dependent sensitivity indices are computed and analyzed. The results show that the interactions between initial control rod boron concentration and the rated power will contribute at most 1% to the total uncertainty of the power peak