Predicting the service life of buildings and facilities to minimize the risk of losses in the conditions of natural and technogenic emergency situations

This article discusses the solution to the task of predicting the consequences of catastrophic earthquakes for operational buildings and facilities. We suggest using such basic parameters for verifying the calculation models as natural frequencies, oscillation forms and decrements of objects under earthquake loads. At the same time we substantiate the possibility to use micro-oscillations for that purpose, even though buildings and facilities are cushioned systems. We present the methods and means to conduct tests to estimate the dynamic parameters of buildings, as well as an example of such a test and the process of verification of the calculation model in the example of a panel multi-storey building. We set an example of evaluation of the consequences of an accident with a building in St. Petersburg, which was partially destroyed as a result of non-uniform setting of soils in the base. We drew the conclusion that using dynamic parameters makes it possible to solve various tasks for current predicting the remaining service life of damaged objects. (paper)