Long-term environmental concerns and their implications for the oil industry

Three general forecasts can be made with respect to the oil industry. Firstly, since the oil industry and its products impinge on all aspects of the environment the pressure on the industry to alleviate those impacts will not diminish in the future. Secondly, the ever increasing demand for the industry's output presents a social dilemma in which the benefits of the measures taken to protect the environment will have to be balanced against the costs to the economy. In the third place, the finite nature of the resource means that the industry is fundamentally unsustainable and there will be more and more pressure to come to terms with alternative energy sources. These general forecasts are used as a basis for making more specific ones about challenges from environmental issues and opportunities for technology. To a great extent this will be driven by developing legislation, the policy principles on which this is based and how it is implemented, and these are examined. Finally the issue that will have most effect on the industry and its environmental consequences is addressed. This is demand, based on projections of the global population size, and the way it is distributed between developed, developing and transitional economies. (23 references). (UK)