Emerging trends in regional coal production

At an average annual growth rate of 1.9%, the total national demand for coal will increase from 850 million short tons in 1985 to 2 billion short tons annually by the year 2030. A market simulation model (described in this paper) determines the regional pattern of coal production needed to meet these demands. Because compliance or low-sulfur coal resources are a low-cost option for meeting environmental regulations, they could be mined out substantially in the medium term. In the next 15 to 25 years, most of the Eastern compliance coal up to a mining cost of $40 per ton could be mined out and 4 billion short tons of Western compliance coal could be produced. By the year 2030, almost all Eastern low-sulfur coal could be mined out. Most Western compliance coal costing less than $20/ton could be mined out by 2030