Critical metals: the dead-end of SUVs. Which scenario for a successful transition of our mobilities? When the rest of the story is known,...better choices can be made

Whereas the electric car is considered as indispensable for a successful struggle against global warming, its deployment could be hampered by risks of shortages of some necessary critical materials, notably lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earths. This study aims at identifying levers of reduction of the demand related to mobility. It first presents the electric vehicle as an indispensable solution for transition (for the struggle against global warming, with other benefits than those related to climate, with a higher benefit for small vehicles, but a high consumption of critical materials). It discusses the supply in critical materials as a disrupting component (factors of potential bottleneck for material supply related to the electric car development, role of circular economy and of the improvement of battery chemistry). It proposes supply scenarios and discusses their results in terms of evolution of fleet and sales, of demand in batteries, of demand in critical materials, of potential levers of demand reduction, of distinction between primary demand and secondary demand, and of comparison between offer and demand indicators. Recommendations are finally stated