Building a Credible and Updated WIPP Performance Assessment - New Knowledge Versus Conservative Assumptions and FEP Analysis, A Balancing Act - 16299

Conservative assumptions are important components in conceptual model development where limited data is available. And, as appropriate, during the early 1990's Department of Energy (DOE) adopted many conservative assumptions in the development of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant's (WIPP's) 24 Conceptual Models incorporated in DOE's 1996 Compliance Certification Application (CCA) performance assessment (PA). Many of these assumptions were formulated and documented in the WIPP relevant features, events and processes (FEPs) analyses; others were adopted when developing input parameter values and their distributions that were used as inputs to computer models. The Agency accepted these conservative assumptions during their 1996 CCA assessment for several reasons; 1) at the time there was a scarcity of data related to long-term behavior of many parameters needed to be incorporated in the PA, 2) sensitivity studies performed during this time period determined that the affected 'conservative' assumptions adopted for some parameters had minimal to no impact on repository performance; and, 3) DOE could demonstrate compliance with EPA's radioactive waste disposal regulations while adopting conservative assumptions and data. Since the initial 1996 CCA DOE has modified the repository panel closure design, and the repository footprint in the experimental areas has expanded. These modifications were incorporated into DOE's 2014 Compliance Re-certification Application for WIPP. Additionally, there have been numerous investigations related to both the short- and long-term behavior of salt in a repository setting. As a result, the Agency is reassessing the use of these conservative assumptions and the continued applicability of the original FEP analyses, primarily developed during DOE's 1996 PA and carried forward to the current re-certification. This paper examines some of these analyses. (authors)