A current prediction of the ICF gain curve, its uncertainties, and implications for ICF strategy

Gain predictions for indirect-drive ICF targets, based on current target physics knowledge, are presented. In order to understand the uncertainties involved in predicting the performance of future ICF targets, a simple model has been constructed that contains a few basic features of target operation and estimates the possible effects of other complex target processes via simple parametrizations. The scalings and uncertainties in the model parameters are evaluated using current data, detailed calculations, and estimates of some of the underlying target physics processes. Monte Carlo calculations are presented with this model showing the propagation of the estimated uncertainties to the ''near-ignition'' and ''high-gain'' regimes. The probability of success is estimated as a function of the required target gain and available driver energy, with some current facility-planning scenarios used as illustration. The role of potential future experiments in constraining currently uncertain theoretical models is discussed. (author). 5 refs, 4 figs