Analysing the impact of retrofitting and new construction through probabilistic life cycle assessment. A method applied to the environmental-economic payoff value of an intervention case in the Albanian building sector

The EU building stock is relatively old with 40% of it built before 1960. In Albania the building sector accounts for 26, 9% of final energy consumption, offering high energy saving potentials due to the great number of old residential buildings. Intervention is not always possible and, in order to achieve significant environmental savings, the national action plans cannot rely only on the physical improvement of existing buildings. This paper proposes a probabilistic LCA and LCC evaluation model using MC simulation, for the prediction of intervention options in existing buildings. The potential environmental and economic impacts of three intervention options: standard, ambitious retrofitting and new construction during the whole life cycle of a building are analysed. A framework is defined, with the purpose of estimating the value of a building in a specific time during its life cycle. Comparing the generated values of potential environmental impacts and associating them with the changes on the buildings value enables the process of deciding upon the most desirable and/or agreed combination. The results of the SLED Study 2015 on Albanian building typology are used, while the new construction model is defined according to German EnEV2014 requirements. The GWP values from the LCA/LCC assessment of the intervention scenarios, done through the SBS tool of Fraunhofer IBP, are used to create a prediction model for future alternative solutions especially in early planning phase. Decision-making through this model can encourage a sustainability strategy for energy efficiency improvement in the building sector of Albania. (paper)