Foreseeable prospects of the isotopic enrichment of uranium

The first part of the paper contains a brief description of the present enrichment situation and its context. In 1987, demand was stabilized at a level of about 25 million separative work units (SWU) and only some 78% of available facility capacity was in use. Taking into account the nuclear equipment programmes maintained after the severe reductions of recent years, this enrichment capacity will be sufficient to meet demand until close to the year 2000. The influence of using reprocessing products, uranium and plutonium, cannot modify this forecast appreciably. Since 94% of the existing isotopic separation facilities use the gaseous diffusion process, these will be completely written off by the year 2000 but will still be in satisfactory operational condition; they should be able to produce SWU at a cost between US $70 and 80, provided, however, that their energy demands are sufficiently flexible and can vary inversely with the loading plan of their suppliers. The annual increase in demand for enrichment will rise to about 0.5 million SWU by the turn of the century. To meet this demand, it is necessary to consider a separation process permitting a modular development and a SWU production cost close to the market cost at that time. Among the confirmed processes, only centrifugation and the chemical technique meet those objectives; the second one has not yet been achieved. Among the processes proposed, that known as 'Silva' appears to be the most promising from the technical and economical points of view and should in due course be selected for future isotopic separation facilities. At the market level, the consequence of the influence of government producers is that, at present, the SWU price does not reflect the true costs. A 'healthy' market cannot develop unless this is practiced in such a way as to permit normal competition, a practice which is in keeping with the understandable interests of the enrichers, the users of enriched uranium and the consumers of energy. (author). 2 tabs