Energy demand in China: Comparison of characteristics between the US and China in rapid urbanization stage

Highlights: • Energy demand characteristics of the US and China were compared. • Major factors affecting energy demand were examined based on the panel data and the cointegration models. • China's energy demand would reach 5498.13 Mtce in 2020 and 6493.07 Mtce in 2030. • Urbanization can be an opportunity for low-carbon development in China. - Abstract: China's energy demand has shown characteristics of rigid growth in the current urbanization stage. This paper applied the panel data model and the cointegration model to examine the determinants of energy demand in China, and then forecasts China's energy demand based on the scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy demand and economic growth in the long term. In business as usual scenario, China's energy consumption will reach 6493.07 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030. The conclusions can be drawn on the basis of the comparison of characteristics between the US and China. First, energy demand has rigid growth characteristics in the rapid urbanization stage. Second, coal-dominated energy structure of China will lead to the severe problems of CO2 emissions. Third, rapid economic growth requires that energy prices should not rise substantially, so that energy conservation will be the major strategy for China's low-carbon transition. Major policy implications are: first, urbanization can be used as an opportunity for low-carbon development; second, energy price reform is crucial for China's energy sustainability