Carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transport in China since 1949: Implications for developing sustainable transport

This paper traces the historical evolution and spatial disparity of CO2 emissions from passenger transport in China. The general trends of CO2 emissions from four passenger transport modes are estimated by both the distance-based and fuel-based methods. The results suggest that CO2 emissions from road transport represented the leading source of passenger transport CO2 emissions in China. Moreover, they have continued to grow rapidly. Air transport was the second largest contributor since 1998. Emissions from rail and water transport have remained relatively stable with lower emission intensity. At the provincial level, great regional disparity was noticeable, especially in road transport. Moreover, the decomposition analysis shows that income growth was the principal factor leading to the growth of passenger transport CO2 emissions in China for both the 1949–1979 and 1980–2009 periods. The second most important factor was increased transport intensity and modal shifts for the former and the latter period, respectively. The main factor contributed to emission reduction was the lower emission intensity supported by policies, although the effect was weak. In the future, more policies to encourage modal shifts toward sustainable transport modes and travel reduction should be encouraged. - Highlights: ► CO2 emissions from passenger transport in China were estimated. ► Road transport was the largest contributor to CO2 emission. Air transport followed. ► Factors influencing CO2 emissions growth are analyzed by decomposition analysis. ► Income growth, higher travel intensity and modal shift were driving CO2 emissions up. ► Policies to promote modal shifts and travel demand reduction should be encouraged.