A non-linear model for growth of nuclear power, when faced with an anti-nuclear opposition

A non-linear model, established in biology, was used to model the effect of small, medium and large opposition to the nuclear programmes in some western countries. The main result is that there is a whole spectrum of possible results, the most interesting of which occurs when there is medium opposition to nuclear power. In this case, due to a small fluctuation, a bifurcation of an existing nuclear power capacity can occur, resulting in a further rise of decay (''Ausstieg aus der Kernenergie'') which is a typical non-linear effect. The incentive of such studies is not to forecast the future precisely (we are not able to do that), but to throw some light on the range of possible ''futures'' in this contested subject. (author)