Prospects for non-OPEC oil supply

The political and economic importance which has been attached to the oil industry in recent decades relates to the rapid increase in the demand for oil over the period from 1950-80 and to the dominant role played by the politically volatile Middle East in its supply. Although global demand for oil has grown little over the last decade, during which period the role of Middle East supplies has fallen both relatively and absolutely, contemporary conventional wisdom on the future of oil envisages the reestablishment of Middle East supply dominance. This paper will challenge the validity of this view in the context of a realistic evaluation of the long-term demand prospects for the commodity. (author)