A theoretical analysis of technological transitions in spent fuel storage

The past technological trends of spent nuclear fuel storage were analyzed by applying the ''Marchetti Theory'' on transitional phenomena of technology paradigm. The methodology was proved, though the data problem exists, as useful to examine processes of each technology to enter into and exit from the market, as well as project future directions. Based on the results, it was suggested that each storage has found its own ''niche'' market, so that any one option is not necessarily beaten and driven out of the market by other technologies. Another suggestion was made for the new dry methods, such as concrete casks and silos, may expand their shares in the near future. (author)