Study of the evolution of the northwestern European natural gas markets using S-GaMMES

This article presents an application of S-GaMMES in order to study the evolution of the natural gas trade in northwestern Europe. S-GaMMES is a stochastic dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model that describes the evolution of the natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage, and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. The gas demand is made random because of the oil price fluctuations. The model has been applied to represent the northwestern European natural gas market and to forecast, until 2035, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production, and long-term contracts prices and volumes in the different scenarios. Finally, we defined and calculated the value of stochastic solution adapted to our model. (author)