U.S. reference paper on the potential and limitations of uranium to meet the anticipated needs of nuclear energy

A framework is provided to analyze the interrelationship between uranium availability and the deployment of fast breeder and converter reactors. Included are models which can be used to estimate the uranium price for economic parity between breeders and converters, the dates for economical commercialization of fast breeders, and the effect of breeder deployment on uranium availability. Factors such as energy demand, resources and economics which are dominant in decisions as to potential breeder commercialization are discussed. Included are examples which show that breeder breakeven introduction date could fall between the year 2000 and well beyond 2025. A principal conclusion is that the break-even introduction date is very sensitive to uncertainty in the estimate of increase in capital costs of the breeder relative to the LWR, the estimates of power demand, and the estimate of the uranium resource base available at less than $130/kg (e.g. consideration of the IUREP estimates of speculative resources which if available doubles or triples the resource base)