The balance of supply and demand 1978-1990

This paper sets out the likely balance of uranium supply and demand to 1990 for the world outside the communist area as foreseen at the beginning of 1979. It examines a number of factors, including those arising within the fuel cycle itself which might shift the balance significantly one way or the other. The report does not discuss the effect of possible price trends. Demand is calculated in two ways. The first relates to reactor fuel requirements, estimated from assumed values for installed nuclear capacity. The second is based on forecasts of enrichment capacity, and the corresponding quantities of uranium required to keep the enrichment plants working at full capacity. Regarding supply, the study examines a considerable number of factors which provide possible sources of production flexibility or which might act as constraints. Supply estimates are presented in two ways - a lower figure which represents a realistic estimate of the likely level of production; and an upper figure which indicates the maximum production capacity which could be achieved, given economic conditions capable of justifying the energetic pursuit of all projected expansion programmes and known potential new developments. The particular importance of developments in the U.S.A., as the world's largest uranium producer, is emphasised. (author)