Clean and lean. Battery metals demand from electrifying passenger transport - July 2023

T and E has developed three scenarios for the demand of battery raw materials, notably lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese, between today and 2050. All the scenarios assume full electrification of passenger transport by 2050, but take different approaches to the size and number of private cars, as well as battery chemistry they use. The analysis reveals that: - The European cumulative battery demand by 2050 is 100- 200 times higher than in 2022, translating into up to 20 Mt of battery metals (compared to 170 Mtoe oil consumption in 2022); - Even in the business as usual scenario the European demand is well within the global reserves, equivalent to 11% of the known global reserves for lithium and nickel, 10% for cobalt and 1% for manganese; - Having smaller batteries, driving less private car km and going for innovative chemistries (such as sodium-ion) would reduce by over a third the amount of battery metals needed in the central (or 'Accelerated') scenario compared to business as usual. In the most aggressive scenario this drops by half; - Smaller batteries represent the single factor bringing the largest impact, or up to a quarter reduction in raw materials across the scenarios; - In a supply constrained world, going for smaller batteries and cars is not only an environmental imperative, but also sound economic and industrial policy; - Strong policy at European, national and local level is key, including an EU-wide strategy to shift to smaller, affordable and resource light electric vehicles