Paths to a nuclear world with reliable safeguards

The effectiveness of safeguards in the nuclear industry in reducing proliferation is surveyed. Several basic topics relative to proliferation which are discussed are: (1) ''the recognition that 'proliferation' encompasses at least four different issues which may require distinct approaches and policies;'' (2) ''in the context of the regulatory process by which the perceived risks to society are managed;'' (3) ''in the context of the realistic options and objectives for an attainable world nuclear structure;'' and (4) ''in the perception of the public and of decision-makers of the attainable reduction in risks - and at what costs - and the recognition of the extent to which some costs have already been accrued.'' Options open to the world are: (1) a structured nuclear world, (2) an unstructured nuclear world, or (3) a benign energy world. Current US policy of denial of nuclear energy by indefinite delay is seen as indirectly pointing the US toward option 1 or 3, as the basic cause of American economic decline, and as a root cause of many international tensions resulting from the US decline. Certain alternate approaches to a breeder-type reactor program or to fuel reprocessing which should contribute to a more proliferation-resistant nuclear program are briefly discussed