A reappraisal of energy supply and demand in 2050

In this paper dealing with the medium term (2020) and long term (2050) world energy mix the author has attempted to present a single most likely scenario, contrary to the usual multiple scenario approach. A second main characteristic is that the emphasis is not on the uncertainties of energy demand but on the potential limitations on the offer of fossil fuels and mainly of oil and gas. The main conclusions are that by 2050 we will need a large increase of the world nuclear industry, not only for the production of electricity but also to complement the oil industry, by providing it with necessary 'CO2 emissions free' heat and hydrogen. This nuclear based hydrogen would allow to give a sustainable future to the oil industry, and to the automobile industry by providing synthesis fuels on an economically and ecologically sound basis. (author)